Due to the Iran war, The biggest energy shock in decadesthere is still no end in sight. The conflict has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally transports a fifth of the world’s daily oil supplies, sending prices soaring and disrupting countries. ration suppliesand governments are scrambling to ramp up alternative energy sources.
Iran is also at war for the second time in four years to disrupt global oil markets. Europe spent years after Russia invaded Ukraine in earnest in 2022 weaning itself Cut off and increase Russian energy Focus on renewable energy sources, These include wind and solar power, and domestic fossil fuel storage. But as oil flows from the Middle East become increasingly unreliable, some see a silver lining: an Iran war is possible. catalyze A widespread transition to green energy? Or a return to polluting fuels like coal due to cost and convenience? For green energy advocates, there is no time to waste.
Energy security plays a central role. Around the world, policymakers and CEOs are calling for the withdrawal of imported oil and gas in the name of national security. United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres said last week Countries’ “dependence on fossil fuels destabilizes both the climate and global security.” At CERAWeek, the world energy conference held in Houston last week, several Executives also reiterated this point. Investment in renewable energy is needed not only to curb emissions but also to reduce dependence on volatile energy markets.
Henning GroysteinEnergy experts at Eurasia Group agree. “For import-dependent countries, this disruption sends a clear economic and political signal to invest in clean domestic energy infrastructure to reduce import dependence, while combating pollution and climate change,” he says.
Countries in Asia and Europe are already considering options to double down on the green transition to renewables and, in some places, nuclear energy, to avoid further fuel disruptions in the future, Gloystein said. And some people are moving quickly. Last Tuesday, England announced New rules will require developers to install solar panels and geothermal heating systems in all new homes by 2028. Secretary of Energy ed miliband He said the Iran war “shows once again that our commitment to clean power is essential to energy security.”
China, on the other hand, is leaning heavily toward clean energy. Last year China appeared As the world’s first “electrostate” described by Eurasia Group in this year’s Top Risks report. Once the most fossil fuel-dependent major economy, now China account of Gloystein said the Chinese government’s increased electricity use is likely to peak oil demand, which could reach a peak in demand for imported natural gas as early as this year, and could put it in a stronger position to withstand an oil shock.
Constraints: Supply chain bottlenecks. Even if renewable energy supplies nearly half of Europe’s electricity by 2025, further scaling up will be difficult, especially if transport disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue.
For example, large-scale wind power projects underway in Europe could be delayed because some critical parts of turbine foundations and offshore substations are manufactured in the Gulf. The disruption has also disrupted shipments of aluminum needed to build solar panels for the first time since the Middle East. account It accounts for almost 10% of metal production. Over the weekend, Iran also attacked two of the region’s largest aluminum producers in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. pushed Prices are near four-year highs.
Backlash: More fossil fuels. In the short term, some countries are turning to retro, highly polluting fuel sources. Vietnam, Thailand and Bangladesh are increasing coal burning to fill supply gaps, while South Korea is lift Restrictions on coal-fired power generation in response to the Iran conflict.
Countries such as India, Poland and Germany may increase domestic coal production to reduce dependence on imported gas, Gloystein said. India has the 5th largest land area in the world coal reservesmeanwhile Poland It has been dependent on coal for many years. GermanyMeanwhile, power companies are reportedly considering converting to idled coal-fired power plants, believing they can cut electricity prices by more than half.
Drill baby drill? Rising energy prices could reignite interest in drilling, creating an opening for opponents of green power. For example, the President of the United States donald trump, who Since returning to office, US announces intention to halt construction of wind power projects would pay A French company has abandoned plans to build an offshore wind farm and instead invested $1 billion to pursue fossil fuel projects. Green energy advocates say,carbon lock-in”, the crisis-induced expansion of fossil fuels has delayed a transition that was supposed to be accelerated.
This contradiction is clear. The same shocks that emphasize the urgency of clean energy can also slow its adoption. A war with Iran could have a lasting impact on energy markets by aligning climate goals with countries’ long-term security interests. The question is whether that transition can proceed quickly enough before the world becomes reliant on familiar, if volatile, fossil fuels.
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