The war continues, and so does the global energy crisis. In fact, I think oil futures prices are still too low considering how much spot prices can rise. need to rise This is to solve the supply shortage that would occur if the oil supplies shipped before the Strait of Hormuz was closed are depleted.
But despite Donald Trump’s renewable energy attacks that seek to return us to our fossil fuel past, a better future is coming. Regardless of President Trump’s trumpeting, America is not the world. China accounts for only 15% of the world’s energy consumption, compared to 28%. And in other parts of the world, the transition to renewable energy is progressing rapidly, thanks to technological revolutions in solar power, wind power, and, less visible, batteries.
So let’s take a little optimistic break and talk about why batteries will save the world.
The drop in battery prices is incredible. It’s something no one has ever seen before. Big, burly men came up to me with tears in their eyes and said, “Doctor, have you seen the battery progress?”
Why is this important?
First, the storage of electricity through cheap batteries greatly reduces intermittency problems, as the sun isn’t always shining and the wind isn’t always blowing. This was a major concern in the early days of the renewable revolution. When I first thought about it, some energy economists scolded me for my naive optimism. I wrote about solar power generation technology. Back in 2011. However, solar cells and batteries can provide power 24 hours a day.
Here is a graph of California’s electricity supply generated by renewable energy and batteries over a 24-hour period on April 1st, illustrating my point.
During the day, California generates large amounts of electricity from sunlight. Much of that goes into batteries, which provide electricity when the sun goes down. Californians don’t even notice that switch.
Second, battery performance has improved as prices have fallen. Importantly, the amount of battery has increased significantly. volumetric energy density: The amount of electricity that can be stored in a certain space. Until a few years ago, internal combustion engines had a significant advantage over electric cars due to the energy density of gasoline. But no more. Beyond electrification in the United States, the transition from oil to electricity, especially green electricity, is well underway.
Third, we should expect rapid improvements in renewable energy to continue. That’s because advances in batteries are not a result of scientific progress, but rather an accumulation of learning. In fact, lithium-ion batteries are decades old technology. However, thanks to a continuous learning process that has significantly lowered costs and increased energy density, that learning process shows no signs of stopping.
Furthermore, we find that all elements of the green energy transformation are advancing rapidly, even though the underlying technologies have little in common. Solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries are very different, but they all feature revolutionary improvements. This strongly suggests that the entire renewable energy complex is experiencing a virtuous cycle. In other words, increased usage leads to lower costs, and lower costs lead to increased usage.
If you ask where this virtuous cycle is happening, the answer is primarily China, with support from Europe. And the obvious result is that it’s not America. The US has allowed itself to be far surpassed by China and is now only a peripheral figure in the renewable revolution. Fortunately for the rest of the world, this means that the Trump administration’s hostility toward renewable energy and attempts to thwart progress will not stop that revolution or significantly slow its momentum. To be sure, President Trump’s anti-environmental, pro-pollution stance will set America back even further, but progress in combating climate change and reducing the risks of the world’s oil dependence will continue.
Therefore, we are currently in the midst of a severe energy crisis that could last for many months, but this too will pass. A better, cheaper, cleaner energy future is on the horizon, and not even Trump can stop it.
musical coda
#batteries #trust