However, experts say Europe is better prepared for this energy crisis than the last. Meanwhile, we are still waging a culture war against the most obvious exit.
Fuel prices have soared to catastrophic levels since ships carrying oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) ran aground in the Gulf during the Iran war. The pain is most acute in Asia, but soaring energy prices are already causing panic in Europe. Oil company Shell last week warned that supply shortages could occur across the continent this month. Donald Trump’s “get your own oil” comment on Tuesday sent prices soaring to their highest level since the start of the US-Israeli attack on Iran. A barrel at one point fell below $100 on Wednesday amid hopes that the war could end soon.
Yet efforts to hasten the transition from an economy running on dirty foreign fuels to cheaper, cleaner domestic renewable energy remain slow. Instead, rising energy prices are giving lobbyists more ammunition to attack carbon prices, further arguing that the bloc’s major climate policy threatens factories and jobs. New methane standards are also under new attack.
Will Europe’s second fossil energy crisis in a decade prompt leaders to reduce their dependence on imported fuels that pollute the air and warm the planet?
The 2022 energy shock hit Europe at a time when the energy mix was particularly unstable. Russian gas giant Gazprom depleted Germany’s gas reserves in the months leading up to the war, and Russia’s subsequent invasion of Ukraine caught governments by surprise despite harsh warnings from its allies. The ensuing gas shortage coincided with reduced output at nuclear power plants that needed repairs and hydropower plants hit by drought.
Now, Europe is on a more stable footing as fuel prices rise again due to the Iran conflict. Wind and solar overtook fossil fuels in power generation in the European Union last year as authorities shortened permitting procedures and expedited the introduction of renewable energy. The cost of clean alternatives continues to fall, making it easier for households to buy solar panels, electric cars, heat pumps and batteries than during the last crisis.
But in the meantime, EU officials and national leaders have begun rolling back key parts of the Green Deal they once supported. Wary of right-wing populist attacks on climate policy and keen to appease a beleaguered industry that blames green rules for its plight, the European Parliament’s powerful center-right group has made short-term “competitiveness” a top priority. The costs of pollution are being deferred.
Foreign pressure didn’t help either. Last week, members of Congress approved a trade deal with the United States. The deal is related to President Trump’s request for Europe to buy $750 billion in energy over three years, mostly from fossil fuels. Although energy needs were not part of the vote (lawmakers have no power to force companies to buy American fuel), the deal has alarmed campaigners who fear the signal it sends to countries that already use energy as a weapon.
Germany is where the political situation has changed the most. Europe’s biggest polluter is watering down legislation introduced by the previous government after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to phase out gas boilers, with its economy minister telling oil and gas executives last week that the EU should ease its net-zero targets. Meanwhile, the prospect of joining the rest of the democratic world by introducing blanket speed limits on motorways remains a political taboo. The International Energy Agency’s pleas for more drastic measures to weather the oil price shock, such as avoiding planes, driving slower and working from home, have gone completely unheeded.
Perhaps the biggest threat to the green transition is an attack on the EU’s flagship emissions trading system, which imposes a price on carbon pollution. Several EU member states and powerful chemical lobbies targeted the issue well before the war broke out. EU officials on Wednesday announced plans to reduce the price of carbon by ending the automatic cancellation of additional permits in buffer pools. The measures fell short of a more fundamental overhaul called for by some member states, but alarmed green groups who fear a “significant increase” in emissions after 2030.
This is a far cry from the open return to fossil fuels that the United States has embraced. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced last month that she would require lower taxes on electricity rather than fossil fuels, a key transition tool, to encourage investment in decarbonizing industry. Some national leaders have also repeatedly called for an accelerated transition to a clean economy, while considering broader subsidies to protect consumers from soaring fuel prices.
Still, the scale of action outlined by climate scientists and economists remains elusive. During the oil crisis of 1973, when Europe first considered its dependence on fossil fuels, a small number of countries embarked on radical and far-reaching transformations of their energy systems. From cycle lanes in the Netherlands and wind farms in Denmark to nuclear power plants in France and district heating systems in Northern Europe, European leaders have shown that the crisis can spur change. Since then, its obligations have grown, but its imagination seems to have shrunk.
error of law
Europe’s attention is on Hungary ahead of a crucial general election on April 12, with Viktor Orbán facing the possibility of defeat. Under Prime Minister Orbán, a liberal democracy governed by the rule of law, a requirement for EU membership, was effectively reshaped into a one-party state. Democratic institutions are being systematically hollowed out, the judiciary is solidified with government loyalists, and independent media are attacked.
But even if Orbán is removed from power this month, similar forces pose a threat to democracy elsewhere in Europe. Italy, Croatia, Bulgaria and Slovakia were found on Monday to have “consistently and deliberately” violated the rule of law. There are signs of setbacks in other countries as well.
There are chilling signs that Mr Orban’s media strategy is being used as a blueprint. The Italian government has used defamation lawsuits to silence journalists and intellectuals. In France, Le Monde newspaper accused a far-right-led parliamentary inquiry into the public broadcaster of functioning like an “ideological war machine.” In Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany party is eyeing the country’s public broadcasting network.
A new series by the Guardian’s Europe correspondent paints a powerful picture of what’s happening and why it matters. The good news is that a counterattack is also underway.
Until next week.
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